As consideration to all the international relationships, a cordial association between the US and China, the world’s leading and rising powers, will be decisive in the twenty-first century. China’s growth is believed to be influencing billions of lives particularly through international economic initiatives, and radical military adjustments among others, which are altering the geopolitical territory as well as speculating the improbability of China’s prospective direction. The two nations seems to have developed an exceptional relationship a few years ago, but currently, some analysts have claimed that China’s tactical quests are contrary to those of America. Various entities in both countries have also suggested that a power challenge is imminent and inevitable between the superpowers. Although, their opponents asserts that the two countries might eventually defy the forces that are presently catalyzing hostility between them. The paper reviews the prospect of the US-China relationship, given evaluations of the liberals, constructivists, and realists views on the growing tension and conflict of interest between the two nations, before concluding with a restatement of the entire context.
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Overview
1It is important to recognize realists who presume that the association between the two nations will probably be steady and harmonious, liberals who anticipate hostilities as well as clashes, along with constructivists who are neutral and projects either a constructive prospect or conflict. The key stances in this projection are all tailored on suggestions regarding the magnitude of the various causal mechanisms among other probable triggering forces. Of which some forces might prove more decisive, though it is also feasible to suggest that the prospect will be determined by an integration of diverse forces. Tensions between the two nations, was reportedly at its peak by the year 2010, resulting in the worst political confrontations in the period after the 2001 plane crash incident.
By April, 2010, the leaders of the two nations conversed via telephone, which was followed by President Hu Jintao of China presence at a Washington held nuclear safety conference; that gradually led to the resumption of normalcy between the Sino-US relations. The pressure was further alienated in the following month, through the Second China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue (SED) meeting in Beijing. Nonetheless, some historically derived disagreements among the two global powers have also contemporarily become apparent. For instance, the latest American-South Korean martial training around the Yellow Sea demonstrated the fact that a Sino-US tactical plan is yet to be formulated, whereas strategic suspicion has escalated [2] .
Factors affecting US-China relations
US trade, domestic politics, and Military activities
Around 2003, the former US President George W. Bush’s reputation was notable indisputable, as the Republicans controlled the statehouse, senate, as well as congress: in comparison to the current President Barack Obama’s status, which is seemingly average; an indication that his influence over Sino-US dealings exhibits a limit. This particularly encouraged most republican legislators to use the US-China relations as a campaign issue in the last year’s general elections when Obama was reelected [3] . Throughout 2003, the US-China relations witnessed several commercial disputes, which included the US complaint over the Yuan exchange valuation. Moreover, presently Sino-US business tensions have spread to the monetary sectors that initially imposed an optimistic impact on joint dealings.
In the meantime, a section of the international organizations, ranging from Google, General Electric along with Goldman Sachs among others, have shown dejections to China’s inclination towards domestic innovation. Economic disputes have apparently emerged as obstacles to forging a joint a strategic consensus. US-China bilateral martial programs were halted by the 2001 collision, even though Cao Gangchuan’s, the head of Chinese Defense agency, in his October 2003 American tour renounced the ‘full restoration’ of joint martial activities. Nonetheless, in recent years, bilateral military programs have been suspended again after the US sanctioned the Taiwan weapon sales, and martial commanders of both countries have lately expressed more aggressive sentiments [4] .
Japan, Taiwan, and North Korea
Around 2003, the Chen Shui-bian led government was lobbying for recognition of Taiwan’s liberty. Although at that moment, America was inclined towards the Iraq War among other counter-terrorism efforts, and reportedly alleged Taiwan administration of distracting the reputation of cross-Taiwan Straits affairs, besides earmarking Chen as an agitator. Bush along with other agents monitoring the US-Sino relations affirmed in several events that America advocated for a solitary China policy, as opposed to the Taiwanese quest for succession [5] . Sino-US thus ascertained a type agreement regarding the Taiwan issue, until the contemporary approval of arms sales, which have been termed by Chinese agents as ‘a stab in the back.’ In the same year, tripartite negotiations between the Sino-US, alongside North Korea were apprehended, besides the primary stage of Six-Party Talks. Nevertheless, seven years afterwards, North Korea has staged a couple of nuclear tests, while the next stage of the Six-Party Talks is still not forthcoming.
The Cheonan confrontation, at which China was reluctant to back the West in their attempt to censor North Korea through the UN, also contributed to the weakening of multilateral associations. Generally, China-Japanese confrontations however, have been offsetting the US-Sino hostilities for most part of the post-Cold War era. In early January 2003, Junichiro Koizumi, the former Prime Minister of Japan, paid attribute to war victims at the Yasukuni Shrine, consequently refreshing resentments from the Chinese people. Thus in the ensuing years, the latter nations image exceeded that of the US in negativity, involving a 2005 Chinese nationwide demonstration against Japan. [6] But the two neighboring countries developed a cordial relationship in the following year, and this left a rivalry vacuum among the Chinese, that was afterwards redirected towards the US. Chinese people have contemporarily made numerous nationalist sentiments in target of America until the recent renewal of confrontations with Japan over a disputed territory.
International and Contemporary security
After the declaration of Iraqi War, the US was faced with widespread censorship from countries such as Russia, France and Germany, alongside the Islamic world, though China held an impartial perception, in favor of the Bush led government. [7] However, this has gradually changed with the recent events, where America is for instance, unhappy with China’s stance regarding the Iranian nuclear program. Furthermore, China have never supported Obama’s lobby for a “non-nuclear world.” The 2003 censorship of SARS endorsed the two nation’s accord on non-conventional affairs, though various pessimistic confrontations were equally highlighted at the 2009 UN Copenhagen Climate Change Conference (CCCC). Regarding both weather along with energy concerns, the two powers exhibit mass inhabitants who are strongly opposed to the restriction advocacies as well as motivations.
Discussion
Towards the end of 2003, Chinese leaders headed by Hu Jintao confirmed its countries commitment to a harmonious coexistence. A fact that led American observers to assume that China’s prospective growth plan was to replicate the Western leadership model. However presently, American media have persistently branded China as a time bomb [8] . In China, various media coverage and reports, such as the Chinese Dream, Unhappy China, along with the Currency Wars, similarly presents clear signs of nationalism coupled with the mounting anti-US dissents. Discussions for a rapid militaristic expansion, besides overlooking the conventionally espoused policies including non-alignment are equally common in various sections of Chinese media. The economical distinction among the two nations is also witnessing marginalization. China reported a GDP of $1.4 trillion by 2003, which was equivalent to one-eighth of Americas $10.9 trillion. However, China recorded a $5 trillion GDP later in 2009, thus surpassing one-third of Americas $14 trillion.
While Americas percentage of the international economy has dropped from 29 to 23, in the period between 2003 and 2009. The difference between the two nations hard power hence is radically closing. With the contemporary global fiscal challenges, the West’s potency as well as effect has been abridged, as rising powers are claiming more essential mandates internationally [9] . The US-China premeditated associations obligate a fundamental modification process. As China’s potency surges, it will particularly demand more dominancy, given the essentiality of Sino-US corporations. Starting from 2003 onwards, China-US pragmatic dealings has extensively intensified both in magnitude and scope, where these nations exhibit wide expanding joint interests in various sectors, which mainly entail education, civic welfare, energy along with finance. Even though, the US planners are still utilizing their advancement in both domestic as well as global affairs to contain China.
Conclusion
The fate of the US-Sino affairs will undoubtedly have an essential influence on the prospect of international, continental, as well as national politics. Experts have cited that this is the first incident in contemporary history when two influential global powers are extremely unified, but so cautious and skeptical of each other. Hence predicting the future of the relations presents major hurdles. Besides, China’s growing strength cannot be converted into scheming as well as policy levers towards the US-China relations. It requires time for America to even consider adjusting its policies towards China. Thus, in the prospect the tactical cooperation gap among the two nations face marginalization and only intense competition is foreseeable so far, in contrary to a hostile clash. China’s national strength alongside growth, are the prerequisites of a positive US-Sino relations, and this can only be maintained when China handles its domestic issues objectively. The pertinent agencies will eventually be forced to consult with one another, apart from keeping in touch with their federal authorities particularly on contentious issues.
